Last updated at 15:00, Saturday 18th August 2012

Robins to keep on rolling

Mike Holden

Go to any popular League One club messageboard, locate the first thread about the coming season that alludes to hopes or expectations, and soon enough you'll find a simple observation being shared by almost everyone: it's a weaker division this year.

Of course, the idea that relegated teams are weaker than the promoted sides they replace is fairly common - and sometimes misguided - but it doesn't take a genius to work out that playing budgets have been instrumental at this level over the past few seasons, to an extreme that Coventry, Doncaster and Portsmouth cannot live up to.

In the last five years, no team starting the season at 20/1 or bigger has finished in the top three - whereas seven managed it in the four years prior. Meanwhile, three of the nine teams who were promoted from this division between 2008 and 2011 are now in the Premier League, with a further three recording top ten finishes in their first season at Championship level.

However, the bottleneck is clearing and it's obvious to all. Of the eight teams who have bossed the division at various points over the past three seasons, only Sheffield United and MK Dons remain and the Blades have been forced to reduce their budget with financial fair play regulations coming into force.

Back Swindon to win the League One title at 9/1
Danny Wilson's men are favourites to take the title but we can't abide that position based on the numerous obstacles - both practical and psychological - that the manager must overcome. Wilson was unable to prevent the wheels coming off at Swindon when he lost the play-off final two years ago. The Robins were relegated the following season and the anguish caused by an agonising penalty shoot-out defeat at Wembley shouldn't be underestimated.

However, MK Dons look like certainties to be in the mix once again. They've made the play-offs in three of the last four seasons and amassed 80 points last term without a recognised goalscorer. Now owner Pete Winkelman has responded to the changing landscape by increasing the money available to manager Karl Robinson and throwing down a sizeable gauntlet, declaring that only automatic promotion will be considered acceptable.

As a manager, Robinson clearly has potential and his brand of football wins him many admirers but he needs a promotion to justify the hype. In the past two seasons, the quality of rival contenders has offered a reasonable defence but there can be no excuses this time. The Dons need to win more big matches and they need to handle the pressure better whenever they do put themselves in the driving seat.

But it's on those grounds that we're going to swerve the 8/1 second-favourites and side instead with newly-promoted Swindon at 9/1.

Back Swindon to win the League One title at 9/1
Under the inspirational guidance of Paolo Di Canio, the Robins have established themselves as a formidable proposition and we don't doubt the Italian's ability to scale his success at a higher level, particularly in the modern day climate. In the past four seasons, six teams have completed back-to-back promotions in the Football League and we see clear parallels between the progress at the County Ground and the recent achievements of Norwich and Southampton at Championship level.

Swindon's rise to prominence might be rapid, but it also appears to have been built on solid foundations. The run of 18 wins and 17 clean sheets in 21 home matches going back to last October is truly extraordinary and one assumes it would automatically put the Robins into contention if Di Canio can maintain the same level of tactical discipline with an impressive batch of new arrivals.

Make no mistake, it's Di Canio who makes this bet. The 44-year-old impressed at every turn in his debut campaign and he must be a joy for players to work with. From tactics to man-management to his frankly hilarious post-match interviews, he is the full package and it's surely only a matter of time before he's barking orders from a Premier League dugout.

However, loyalty is also a defining trait and we shouldn't be overly concerned about him walking away for as long as the Wiltshire club match his ambition in the transfer market. Nobody can say for sure what opportunities might arise, but Di Canio has developed a real affinity with the club and seems likely to consider his business unfinished for longer than most.

Back Crewe (+25) to win the handicap at 18/1
Meanwhile, moving down the market, we also see great value in another newly-promoted side with another shining light at the helm and that's why we're backing Crewe to win handicap with a 25-point head start.

Following the astute instructions of Steve Davis, the Railwaymen finished last season on a 19-match unbeaten run that culminated with a big performance when it mattered most against Cheltenham at Wembley and they've already fired an early warning of their intentions at this level with a 5-0 whitewash against Hartlepool in the Capital One Cup on Saturday.

That result alone should give short shrift to the notion that Alex will struggle to create chances without playmaker Nick Powell after the 18-year-old prodigy signed for Manchester United in a £4m deal over the summer. Instead, step forward Max Clayton, the 18-year-old prodigy who plays in the same position and a player whom the Gresty Road backroom staff consider to be of equal talent.

But again, this is all about the manager and his ability to create a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts. Davis has a keen eye for tactical detail and he's barely put a foot wrong in his first nine months, so who can say when the forward momentum will grind to a halt.

Back Crewe (+25) to win the handicap at 18/1
There are various ways to get with Alex. The markets for promotion (16/1) and top Midlands club (five runners, 9/1) both represent value but it's the handicap that gets the nod from us with a top-six finish almost certain to guarantee place terms at least. And we'll cover our overall outlay with a solid match bet on Crewe to finish above Shrewsbury at 10/11.

The Shrews have waited a long time to return this level but we're not convinced they've prepared well enough to stay here. You have to go back to 1994 for the last time Graham Turner managed at this level with any degree of success and he's had to cope with the departure of several key players from last season's promotion campaign, many of whom have been offered better terms elsewhere.

For all of the talk of this division being weaker than previous years, it's worth pointing out that six promoted clubs have gone straight back down in the past four seasons, a sample that includes Hereford's dismal effort under Turner in 2008/09, and we see some similarities between Salop and a few of those previous examples.

Back Crewe to finish above Shrewsbury at 10/11

Mike Holden's forecast:

1. Swindon
2. MK Dons
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3. Notts County
4. Crewe
5. Sheff Utd
6. Brentford
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7. Carlisle
8. Bournemouth
9. Preston
10. Scunthorpe
11. Colchester
12. Tranmere
13. Yeovil
14. Doncaster
15. Stevenage
16. Coventry
17. Walsall
18. Oldham
19. Portsmouth
20. Crawley
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21. Bury
22. Hartlepool
23. Shrewsbury
24. Leyton Orient

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